Minggu, 30 Agustus 2009

Waspadai Spammers Di Blogspot !!

Cuma artikel singkat yang pasti bukan artikel bisnis online dan masih berhubungan dengan fenomena maraknya kontes SEO Indonesia dipertengahan hingga akhir tahun 2009 ini, mau tidak mau juga sedikit banyak mengakibatkan bertumbuhnya bibit spammers/ tukang spam baru. Dan Saya tidak akan menerangkan secara rinci cukup anda perhatikan saja komentar pertama pada posting ini yang saya buat sendiri

Efektifitas Blog Dummy

Sebelumnya saya Mohon maaf buat pengunjung baru dari search engine yang mungkin tertipu dengan title blog bisnis online terutama yang mengetikkan kata kunci “bisnis online”, karena isi dari blog bisnis acakadut ini tidak sesuai dengan informasi yang anda cari atau diharapakan. karena saya juga pernah terkadang kecewa dengan blog yang berisi artikel tidak sesuai dengan niche blog terlebih kalau

Kualitas Backlink Di Kontes SEO

Blog Bisnis Online Pemula ingin bercerita sedikit mengenai kualitas backlink dan pengaruhnya di ajang kontes SEO (Search Engine Optimization), mengapa backlink diperlukan? Yap backlink bisa diibaratkan Kartu nama blog dimana salah satu acuan search engine seperti google melihat tingkat kepopuleran suatu blog untuk ditempatkan di posisi peringkat/ Serp teratas.

Apakah Backlink yang baik

Kontes Seo Sangat Melelahkan

Tentunya para dedemit, dedengkot, sesepuh, manula atau pun master seo sudah pada tahu betapa lelahnya meraih serta mempertahankan peringkat blog kontes mereka di halaman pertama google agar tetap selalu terjaga, terlebih kalau itu semua dilakukan hanya seorang diri, itu yang saya rasakan sebagai pe bisnis online pemula 100% di ajang kontes seo (Search Engine Optimization) dan memang benar-benar

Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa

Mengembalikan Jati Diri Bangsa Indonesia memang seharusnya di terapkan secepatnya mulai dari diri kita sendiri karena untuk mengembalikan Jati Diri katanya tidak semudah membalikan telapak tangan, perlu perjuangan yang benar-benar disadari oleh diri sendiri dalam hal ini adalah bangsa Indonesia. Banyak contoh nyata guna merebut harga diri bangsa yang telah direnggut tanpa kita sadari

Thoughts on Managing Money

We often hear from students by letter, telephone, and in person at seminars, that they greatly desire to trade managed money.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, we also hear from students who want money managed for them. In either case, the experience can be gut wrenching.

This chapter should serve as a warning and a caution to both. Since your author has at one time or another engaged in managing money for others, I base what I have to say here on my own experiences and, if it please the reader, this may be entitled "Confessions of a Trader."

The psychological basis for successful trading is indeed a delicate subject. No one we have ever heard of has been able to pinpoint exactly what it is that gives one trader success while another trader fails. Although some claim to have done this, coming up with an attribute profile of the "average" winner, no one we know of has identified a set of common denominators among professional winning traders. Besides, which of us is "average?" Is it you?

Winning in the markets seems to involve a fine balance of traits that differ among winning traders. To make the identification of winning traders even more complicated, there seems to be a distinction between those traders who can successfully trade their own money and those traders who can successfully trade the money of others. I have met both.

Two of the most successful money managers I know personally began by trading managed money. They began trading other people’s money for lack of sufficient money of their own with which to trade. Later in their careers, when they did have sufficient money with which to trade their own account, they found that they failed miserably. They were not able to trade their own money with any degree of success. More than that, when they traded their own money simultaneously with trading managed money, they failed at both.

Upon further investigation, and after speaking with a number of traders who have tried both, I discovered that there are many traders who are successful at trading managed money, but who can’t trade their way out of their hat when trying to trade their own money. Invariably, upon further probing, some admitted that they were much more daring and courageous with other people’s money than they were when the money was their own.

Also in this group of those who trade better for others than themselves, I have been able to identify traders who said they were much more careful and conservative with the money of others than they were with money of their own.

So within this group of traders, all of them students of ours who can successfully trade managed money, some are successful because they are more daring with other people’s money, and some are successful because they are more careful with money not their own.

Next, we come to those traders who successfully manage their own money and who have attempted to manage money for others, but failed.

I have heard from quite a few traders who attempted to manage money for others. In this group I include those who have failed miserably. I have spoken with a number of students who have had the experience of losing at least half of the money under their management prior to returning the balance to those who invested with them. Amazingly, the answers are the same as with the group who successfully manage money. Managed money seems to be a "monkey" on their backs. They find that they trade too carefully, too conservatively when the money is not their own. Worse than that, when things go wrong with a trade, they do not act rationally and with the same cool determination as with their own money. When they trade their own account, they do not think of it as money. When they trade someone else’s account, all they can think of is that it is money. And, because it is not their own, they try their hardest not to lose it. Unfortunately, experience shows that what they fear the most happens - they do lose the money.

I have spoken with students who successfully manage their own money because they are more careful with their own than with the money of others. They, too, have failed with managed money, and have resigned themselves to trading only their own accounts.

Among the students and acquaintances, I have identified at least four categories of traders who attempt to manage money. I’m sure there are other categories, but these are the ones I’ve found:

1. Those who successfully manage money for others but cannot manage their own account with any great degree of success because they are too careful with their own money, while they are more daring with the money of others.

2. Those who successfully manage money for others but cannot manage their own account with any great degree of success because they are too daring with their own money, while they are more careful with the money of others.

3. Those who successfully manage their own money but fail with managed money because they are too careful when managing money for others.

4. Those who successfully manage their own money but fail with managed money because they are too daring when managing money for others.

Conclusions:

Among these students I found none who successfully traded both managed accounts and their own accounts. The size of the population for this study was too small to come up with any meaningful statistics, but there are some warnings and cautions that can be concluded.

To those of you who want to have your money managed, be aware that the individual success of any trader trading his/her own money is no guarantee that that person can successfully manage the money of others. It would seem to bear out the reality of placing managed money with a proven successful trader of managed money.

To those of you who want to manage money for others, be aware that successfully trading your own account is no guarantee that you will be able to successfully trade the account of other persons.

Failure in either of these situations is painful for all concerned! In fact, the pain can be so great as to prematurely end the trading hopes of either party.

Be very careful, because in both of these situations the result can be great personal pain. The pain may be both physical and mental, and can cause you to abort your trading career. I feel it is my duty to caution you about getting involved with managed money, whether you try to manage the money of others, or whether you want someone else to manage yours. The costs can be horrendous.

The responsibility of trading managed money can really wear you down. You may have to go for years without a vacation. You find yourself working late into the night, and working a significant portion of the weekends.

All work and no play is not a good thing for your trading career.

Interestingly, most of my students come to me relating that the reason they want to learn how to trade is so they can become independent and not have to work at a regular job. However, trading managed money is one of the most grueling jobs you can ever undertake.

by Joe Ross
http://www.tradingeducators.com

Trading with Strategy

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. ACM does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very ’fast market’ which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders’ timing will be off. Don’t expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let’s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:

Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are ’involved with your money’ the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

Identify the state of the market:

What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that’s forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you’re trading on:

Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind’s eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you’ll be ’scalping’ (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you’re looking at. If you trade many times a day, there’s no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you’ll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Time your trade:

You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that’s already underway. Timing your move means knowing what’s expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.

If in doubt, stay out:

If you’re unsure about a trade and find you’re hesitating, stay on the sidelines.

Trade logical transaction sizes:

Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity (in ACM’s case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don’t trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don’t put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.

Gauge market sentiment:

Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term ’the trend is your friend’, this basically means that if you’re in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.

Market expectation:

Market expectation relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been ’discounted’ by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.

Use what other traders use:

In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.

by Nicholas H. Bang
http://www.ac-markets.com

Understanding the Basics of Currency Trading

Investors and traders around the world are looking to the Forex market as a new speculation opportunity. But, how are transactions conducted in the Forex market? Or, what are the basics of Forex Trading? Before adventuring in the Forex market we need to make sure we understand the it, otherwise we will find ourselves lost where we less expected. This is what this article is aimed to, to understand the basics of currency trading.

What is traded in the Forex market?

The instrument traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs. A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another. The most traded currency pairs are:

USD/CHF: Swiss franc

GBP/USD: Pound

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar

USD/JPY: Yen

EUR/USD: Euro

AUD/USD: Aussie

These six currency pairs generate up to 85% of the overall volume in the Forex market. So, for instance, if a trader goes long on the Euro, she or he is simultaneously buying the EUR and selling the USD. If the same trader goes short or sells the Aussie, she or he is simultaneously selling the AUD and buying the USD.

The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency. Each currency pair is expressed in units of the counter currency needed to get one unit of the base currency. If the price or quote of the EUR/USD is 1.2545, it means that 1.2545 US dollars are needed to get one EUR.

Bid/Ask Spread

All currency pairs are commonly quoted with a bid and ask price. The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at, thus the trader should sell at this price. The ask is the price your broker is willing to sell at, thus the trader should buy at this price.

EUR/USD 1.2645/48 or 1.2645/8

The bid price is 1.2645

The ask price is 1.2648

A Pip

A pip is the minimum incremental move a currency pair can make. A pip stands for price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2560 equals 15 pips. And a move in the USD/JPY from 112.35 to 113.40 equals 105 pips.

Margin Trading (leverage)

In contrast with other financial markets where you require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.

The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.) Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a position.

The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.

For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is using 100:1 leverage.

To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.

Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance. If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker. This takes us to our next important term.

Margin Call

A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades, leaving the trader "theoretically" with the maintenance margin.

Most of the time margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.

How are the mechanics of a Forex trade?

The trader, after an extensive analysis, decides there is a higher probability of the British pound to go up. He or she decides to go long risking 30 pips and having a target (reward) of 60 pips. If the market goes against our trader he/she will lose 30 pips, on the other hand, if the market goes in the intended way, he or she will gain 60 pips. The actual quote for the pound is 1.8524/27, 4 pips spread. Our trader gets long at 1.8530 (ask). By the time the market gets to either our target (called take profit order) or our risk point (called stop loss level) we will have to sell it at the bid price (the price our broker is willing to buy our position back.) In order to make 40 pips, our take profit level should be placed at 1.8590 (bid price.) If our target gets hit, the market ran 64 pips (60 pips plus the 4 pip spread.) If our stop loss level is hit, the market ran 30 pips against us.

It’s very important to understand every aspect of forex trading. Start first from the very basic concepts, then move on to more complex issues such as Forex trading systems, trading psychology, trade and risk management, and so on. And make sure you master every single aspect before adventuring in a live trading account.

What is forex Trading

Foreign Exchange Market, or Forex as it is commonly called, is an international exchange market to buy and sell different currencies from around the world. An investor has the ability to buy and sell these currencies in order to create gains from small movements in the value of one currency over another. The forex market is open from Monday at 0:00 GMT until Friday at 10:00 GMT. For this reason Forex traders are not limited to the general time constraints of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ.

This versatility attracts many investors to become Forex traders. The liquidity of the Foreign Exchange Market is also very attractive for the Forex investor as trades range from 1 to 1.5 trillion dollars on a daily basis. These massive amounts of trades make it extremely difficult for any one trader to affect the market.

Foreign Exchange Trading is simply the purchase and sales of currency based on the strength of the currency and the fluctuation in the value of that currency. For example, if one were to invest $1,000 against the British pound at 1.7999 with a 1% margin and anticipate the exchange rate to climb. If that occurs and you close the exchange rate at 1.8050 you would earn roughly $400. Forex is giving you a 40% return on your investment.

Forex offers the possibility of huge profits in relatively short periods of time. The stock exchange is very different in that positions are generally maintained over a longer period of time. Although there are day traders, Forex traders have much shorter hold times on positions. Similar to the stock market marginal accounts can be obtained in the Foreign Exchange Market as well.

Forex marginal accounts are very engaging as they allow Forex traders to take large positions without having to make a large deposit. In many circumstances one can fund a marginal account with .05% the necessary funds. In other words, $500 would allow a $100,000 position. In order to trade Forex effectively and profitably, one must have some type of method to follow. There are two methods used in determining what Foreign Exchange trades one should make. There are two methods, fundamental Forex analysis, and technical Forex analysis.

Technical analysis is the most commonly used practice and uses the assumption that the changes that occur in the Foreign Exchange Market happened for a reason and are accurate. The belief is that if a currency has been trading towards a high then that currency will mostly continue towards that high with the adverse being true as well. The technical Forex view does not try to make long term predictions about the market but instead simply tries to take advantage of what has already been seen in the past.

The fundamental Forex method takes into account all aspects of the country in which the currency is traded. Things such as the economy, the countries prime interest rates, war, poverty level, and other factors are taken into account. If there is a sharp rise in the prime interest rate a Forex trader may take a position based on that information.

Online Forex trading has the potential of being extremely lucrative. One can learn to trade by creating an online Forex Account and begin by using a learning account without real funds. This will help you to understand the Forex trading process and how currencies are affected by different things that are happening on a global scale.

Why do Forex Trading?

So.. you want to make lots of money in forex trading? Well, before you get your feet wet....let me refresh your mind why forex trading is such a hot money maker...

The cash/spot FOREX markets have certain unique attributes that offer an unmatched potential for profitable trading in any market condition or any stage of the business cycle. It leaves one to wonder why bother in the first place?

Forex trading offers people who trade:

A 24-hour market: A forex trader has the chance to take advantage of all of the profitable market conditions at any time; which means that there is no waiting for the start like the New York Stock exchange.

Highest liquidity Possible: The FOREX market is the most liquid market in the world. That means that a trader can enter or exit the market whenever they want during almost any market condition minimal execution barriers or risk and no daily trading limit.

High leverage ratio: It has a leverage ratio of up to 400 is normal when compared to a leverage ratio of 2 in the equity markets. Of course, this makes trading in the cash/spot forex market awkward a swell because it makes the risk of the down side loss much higher in the same way that it makes the profit potential on the upside much prettier.

Low cost per transaction: The retail transaction cost is actually less than 0.1% under the normal market conditions. At larger dealers, the spread could be less than 5 pips, and may expand a great deal in fast moving markets.

Always a good market: A trade in the FOREX market means selling or buying one currency against another. In essence, a bull market or a bear market for a currency is defined in terms of the outlook for value against other currencies. If the outlook is positive, you get a bull market where a trader profits by buying the currency against other currencies.

Inter-bank market: The foundation of the FOREX market consists of a global network of dealers that communicate and trade with their clients through electronic networks and telephones. There are no organized exchanges like in futures that are there to serve as a central location to facilitate transactions the way the New York Stock Exchange serves the equity markets.

No one can corner the market: The FOREX market is so large and has so many participants that no single trader, even a central bank, can control the market price for an extended period of time.

It is not completely Unregulated: The FOREX market is seen as an unregulated market although the operations of major dealers like commercial banks in money centers are regulated under the banking laws.

For the average person who is willing to get into forex trading, this market is just a better bet. With it being so wide open like it is, you have a higher gross potential than with any other trade type.

Why you need to develop your own forex trading system

There are many forex trading systems and trading strategies out there. There are many free ones printed in forex trading articles, journals, books and on trading-related websites. You can buy them as software or you can subscribe to them periodically.

Novice traders say they do not have the time, the aptitude, the talent nor the brains to work out how to trade properly. They would rather purchase a program or subscribe to a forex trading system for hundreds - or in some cases - thousands of dollars. They say they do not have to do anything except be told what to buy, when to buy and how much of it you need to buy. Some ask me if this strategy or approach is advisable for trading the forex markets. To answer this question, I am then forced to consider the advantages and disadvantages of using such an approach to trading.

There are reasons why a trader would use a forex trading system or forex trading strategy that someone else developed and tested:

It is easy. A novice trader does not need to study how the forex market works and how he interacts with that market. He does not need to educate himself: he does not need to bother with books and seminars. He does not need to test the trading system, since the seller has already done that for him and reported promising hypothetical or actual results.
A novice trader hopes to get a forex trading system at a ’bargain’ price... sometimes even for free.

Hazards of trading a forex system or strategy developed and tested by someone else are the following:

Faulty Trading Systems
There are many faulty forex systems out there. They may be faulty because their assumptions and their mechanisms may no longer be true, accurate or valid. As a novice trader, how can you distinguish between the good systems and the bad systems if you don’t know how trading systems are built?
Discipline and confidence
All systems have drawdown periods. Some good forex trading systems may not make money for six months or an entire year. Even if it was a good system, can you continue to follow it even if it gives you a loss after a loss after a loss? How can you follow it if you do not have confidence in it? How can you be confident if you do not know the ins and outs of the system and if you have not tested it yourself?

I do not believe that people would blindly follow a system even if they were told that it would bring them riches. I can give someone a forex trading system, I can supply him with exceptional hypothetical or actual results and still, he would not be able to follow it.

I remember giving my dad a fully-mechanical forex trading system I developed. I told him a few simple rules and I told him not to question them. All he had to do was to follow them. We both traded it for two months, I grew my small account by roughly 50% (it happened to be a good two months), but he was losing. He wondered why. I asked to see his trading records. When I looked at his trading records, I found that he kept disobeying the rules. When I asked him why he disobeyed them, he wanted to improve the results after it had a couple of losing trades. He was trying to improve the results. According to him, the system asked him to do what he thought was not right during certain market conditions, so he did not follow it.

To overcome the hazards above, I see no way except for a trader to learn how to develop his own trading system. This is the only way a trader can know if a particular trading system or strategy is good or not.

Once a trader learns how to develop forex trading systems and strategies, he can then be better equipped to test them as well. By this point he might even find that he is better off using the system he created, because it becomes increasingly difficult to find another system more suited to his profit objectives while operating within his risk tolerance levels. It is likely that once he develops this level of competence, he will simply acquire other systems only to dissect them, grab the parts he likes and add them to his own system. To me, the irony is that for a trader to know which system to purchase, he must first learn how to create a system. And after knowing how to create a trading system, he will no longer have the need to buy one.

In conclusion then, I would have to say that if you are not inclined to learn how to develop your own trading methodology, then perhaps you should consider giving your money for someone else to invest. Give it to someone who is trading a system that he developed and tested himself because he is more likely to have the confidence and courage to follow his own set of rules.

Choosing Between Credit and Debit Cards

Knowing the principle differences between credit and debit cards can help you make wiser financial decisions, thus saving you money. Unfortunately, too many consumers seem to mix up these two types of payment tools, especially when it comes to using credit cards and meeting payment obligations on them. Both, credit and debit cards have their advantages and drawbacks.

If you want to avoid common pitfalls and stay away from financial troubles that strip most vulnerable Americans of their homes and happiness, it is time to get some education.
Trying to understand what you really need, a credit or a debit card, you should look into your priorities, spending habits and special needs. The basic and crucial difference between the two lies in the”working mechanism”. For example, when you pay with a debit card, it is the same as if you were paying with your own hard cash. Except that the cash is in the form of a small plastic and is actually kept in a special checking account with your bank.

How do you get the money in your checking account? There are several ways you can do it. You can make direct cash deposits, arrange transfers from other bank accounts or have your employer transfer your paycheck to the account. You can load the account any time and each time you need more funds available. Remember, using a debit card, you spend your own money without owing anything like interest to your bank. There are some fees though associated with debit card servicing but they are not significant.

A credit card works as a loan. You don’t own the money on the card – you borrow it from a bank. Hence, there come all these APRs (the price for using a credit line), fees and other charges that cover card service, as well as your borrowing risk. As it is kind of a loan, you do not have to pay the purchase price back immediately. Usually, you have up to 30 days before your first minimum payment is due.

At this point cardholders begin to abuse the basic credit card rule – the rule to pay each monthly bill before the due date with more than the minimum required.

The different “working mechanisms” of credit and debit cards determine their pricing and risk. Those who do not make timely payments on credit cards are likely to dig a hole of debt that’s impossible to get out of. And people do make late payments and even miss them.

When default APRs and penalty fees apply to already great balances, your financial wellbeing becomes dependent on external factors such as consumer debt counseling services and various debt management programs.

With all this, the advantages of credit cards are evident. You can easily purchase an item or a service which you were not able to afford before. Plus, you can benefit from various kinds of rewards which accumulate with each card purchase and build up into a value redeemable for brand name merchandize and free services.

State Farm Bank Visa Business Card

Features
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Free additional cards for employees
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Access to online reporting tools

Detailed Year-End Summary Statement
Security
Zero Fraud Liability Protection
Identity Theft Protection
Lost/Stolen Card Protection
Visa Liability Waiver Program
Purchase Security/Extended Protection
Travel & Emergency
Travel and Emergency Assistance Services
Free Auto Rental Insurance
24 Hour Good Neighbor Service®

Student Visa Credit Card

Features
New card designs available

No annual fee

A competitive rate
Cash advance privileges via ATM
24 Hour Good Neighbor Service®
Online access anytime
Zero Fraud Liability Protection
Lost/Stolen card protection
Worldwide Visa credit card acceptance

Good Neighbor Visa Credit Card

Features
Low Purchase APR*
No Annual Fee

Zero Fraud Liability Protection
Online Discounts
Lost/Stolen card protection
Worldwide Visa credit card acceptance
24 Hour Good Neighbor Service®
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Free Identity Theft Protection
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Free $250,000 Travel Accident Insurance
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Cash advance privileges via ATMs and convenience checks

Using Elliot Wave Theory to Analyze the Stock Market

Some market technicians that use technical analysis to look for a nearing market bottom or market top have noticed over the past several years that the stock market will consistently move in a 5 wave pattern which is based on concepts from Elliott Wave Theory. When the stock market is trending upward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves upward and 2 separate moves downward before a top occurs. Meanwhile when the stock market is trending downward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves downward and 2 separate moves upward before a bottom occurs.

Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and analyze their one year charts using concepts from Elliot Wave Theory. Notice how both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made a bottom in late July of 2002 (points A) and then made 3 separate moves upward (A to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) followed by 2 separate moves downward (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before topping out in late August after completing a 5 wave pattern.

Now notice what happened from late August until early October of 2002 as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made 3 separate moves to the downside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the upside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before making a bottom in early October after completing a 5 wave pattern.

Meanwhile lets continue using Elliot Wave Theory an trace out the 5 wave pattern from early October of 2002 until early December of 2002 when the stock market made a top. Notice there were 3 separate moves to the upside (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 separate moves to the downside (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) as well.

After the Nasdaq and S&P 500 topped out in early December they formed another 5 wave pattern as they made a bottom in mid March of 2003. Once again there were 3 downside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 upside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before the 5 wave pattern was completed in mid March.

Now I’m not an expert in Elliot Wave Theory but it looks to me that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 may be nearing the completion of another 5 wave pattern with a potential stock market top coming into play. Notice there have been 3 upside moves (5 to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) and 2 downside moves (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) since mid March through late May of 2003.

Adding concepts from Elliot Wave Theory is another tool investors can use to help predict when a stock market bottom or top is nearing.

Regards,

Bob Kleyla
http://www.amateur-investor.net/

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Did I uncover your credit card details on the web today!

Today I accidentally uncovered a huge list of people’s names, addresses and credit card details online. No kidding.

I found more than that: login details to people’s web hosting accounts and e-commerce site memberships as well. It was really freaky to think it was all just staring at me, thanks to a flukey Google search. Nothing more complicated than that. (And no, don’t email me for the search details!)
For whatever reason, a hacker has broken into a number of sites and stored the resulting DB dumps into text files that Google came along and indexed, all because this guy’s site’s directories were set to display their contents when no default file is present.
I have emailed Victoria Police with all the details. But after thinking about it some more, I have a simple observation and a suggestion…
First the observation that if a hacker is dumb enough to have your private login or credit card details online and indexable by Google, then they’re likely to be in a text file and unencrypted. If your credit card is listed, it’s probably had the spaces removed, since that’s how it will be stored (by idiots who don’t use a salted hash).

W.D. Gann Trading Methods - Genius Trader or Overrated Guru

W.D. Gann is one of the most famous traders of all time, and has a huge devoted following - however the fact is, Gann never made the huge profits many of his disciples claim.

He did not have a success rate of 90%, as is often claimed - the logic his methods are based upon are unsound, and his predictive methods don’t predict - they leave everything to subjective opinion!

Let’s examine his theories of investment in more detail and see.

Let’s look at some common myths about how great a trader Gann actually was:

Many sources quote Gann’s trading profits at $50 million dollars, however this is not true.

An interview that Alexander Elder had with his son tells the truth.

Firstly, his son confirmed that when his father died in the 1950s his estate was valued at just $100,000 - and that included his house.

Secondly, his son confirmed that Gann was unable to make enough money from trading, and therefore supplemented his income by writing and selling courses.

W.D. Gann’s Predictions

Many sources quote he had a success rate in all his trades of over 90% - again not true. We can easily deduce this from the value of his estate.

If he could make money trading and had a 90% success rate, he would have made hundreds of millions in his trading career - and he clearly did not - that’s why he had to sell books and courses.

The only evidence of a 90% success rate came from a small number of trades - and was not representative of them all.

Gann’s Methods are Predictive

Gann came to the conclusion that all natural phenomena are cyclical - including financial markets. This is true, but this is an obvious statement - we all know we’re going to die but when exactly?

A predictive theory is not a predictive theory if it can’t predict.

If Gann’s theory really is predictive, then there would be no market - as we would all know the price in advance!

Gann’s theory is subjective - and he really had no way of predicting the future with accuracy. It’s all subjective analysis and this is NOT a predictive theory.

Gann’s Logic

The basis of Gann’s theory is the principle that price and time must balance.

His methods are based on the squaring of price with time - this occurs when a unit of price equals a unit of time.

Gann for example would take a prominent high in the market, convert that dollar unit into a specified period of time and project it forward. When that time is reached, price and time are squared - and a market turn is due.

What? - How can one unit of price equal one unit of time? If you think about and answer this question for yourself, you will see how absurd the connection is.

This isn’t the only inconsistency used in his analysis - we also have the legendary Fibonacci numbers which are supposed to work with stunning accuracy - but they don’t, and neither do all sorts of astrology and geometry, that appeals to the far out investment crowd.

As we have seen, Gann was a trader who had modest success, and claimed to have discovered a predictive theory - which predicts nothing with accuracy.

Finally, we have so many subjective indicators cobbled together, that the theory can prove anything in hindsight, but if you want a tool to trade the markets look elsewhere.

For those of you still not convinced - I recently saw on the Internet, Gann’s trading methods selling for under $1,000!

Sounds like a bargain to get trades with 90% accuracy - I wonder how many serious money managers have it on their bookshelf.

Enough said.

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What is Credit Card?

A credit card is part of a system of payments named after the small plastic card issued to users of the system. It is a card entitling its holder to buy goods and services based on the holders promise to pay for these goods and services.[1] The issuer of the card grants a line of credit to the consumer (or the user) from which the user can borrow money for payment to a merchant or as a cash advance to the user. A credit card is different from a charge card, where a charge card requires the balance to be paid in full each month. In contrast, credit cards allow the consumers to 'revolve' their balance, at the cost of having interest charged. Most credit cards are issued by local banks or credit unions, and are the same shape and size as specified by the ISO 7810 standard.

Nationalized banks in India

Private Sector Indian Banks

Private sector banks

Axis Bank (formerly UTI Bank)
Bank of Rajasthan
Bharat Overseas Bank
Catholic Syrian Bank
Centurion Bank of Punjab (Merged with HDFC bank)
City Union Bank
Development Credit Bank
Dhanalakshmi Bank
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
IndusInd Bank
ING Vysya Bank
Jammu & Kashmir Bank
Karnataka Bank Limited
Karur Vysya Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Lakshmi Vilas Bank
Lord Krishna Bank (now Centurion Bank of Punjab)
Nainital Bank
Nedungadi Bank (now Punjab National Bank)
Ratnakar Bank
Rupee Bank
Saraswat Bank
SBI Commercial and International Bank
South Indian Bank
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd
Thane Janata Sahakari Bank
Bassein Catholic Bank
United Western Bank (now IDBI Bank)
YES Bank

What are Your Options Regarding Forex Options Brokers?

Forex option brokers can generally be divided into two separate categories: forex brokers who offer online forex option trading platforms and forex brokers who only broker forex option trading via telephone trades placed through a dealing/brokerage desk. A few forex option brokers offer both online forex option trading as well a dealing/brokerage desk for investors who prefer to place orders through a live forex option broker.

The trading account minimums required by different forex option brokers vary from a few thousand dollars to over fifty thousand dollars. Also, forex option brokers may require investors to trade forex options contracts having minimum notional values (contract sizes) up to $500,000. Last, but not least, certain types of forex option contracts can be entered into and exited at any time while other types of forex option contracts lock you in until expiration or settlement. Depending on the type of forex option contract you enter into, you might get stuck the wrong way with an option contract that you can not trade out of. Before trading, investors should inquire with their forex option brokers about initial trading account minimums, required contract size minimums and contract liquidity.

There are a number of different forex option trading products offered to investors by forex option brokers. We believe it is extremely important for investors to understand the distinctly different risk characteristics of each of the forex option trading products mentioned below that are offered by firms that broker forex options.

Plain Vanilla Forex Options Broker - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or forex put option contract.

There are only a few forex option broker/dealers who offer plain vanilla forex options online with real-time streaming quotes 24 hours a day. Most forex option brokers and banks only broker forex options via telephone. Vanilla forex options for major currencies have good liquidity and you can easily enter the market long or short, or exit the market any time day or night.

Vanilla forex option contracts can be used in combination with each other and/or with spot forex contracts to form a basic strategy such as writing a covered call, or much more complex forex trading strategies such as butterflies, strangles, ratio spreads, synthetics, etc. Also, plain vanilla options are often the basis of forex option trading strategies known as exotic options.

Exotic Forex Options Broker - First, it is important to note that there a couple of different forex definitions for "exotic" and we don’t want anyone getting confused. The first definition of a forex "exotic" refers to any individual currency that is less broadly traded than the major currencies. The second forex definition for "exotic" is the one we refer to on this website - a forex option contract (trading strategy) that is a derivative of a standard vanilla forex option contract.

To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific’s investor’s needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.

Exotic forex options are generally traded by commercial and institutional investors rather than retail forex traders, so we won’t spend too much time covering exotic forex options brokers. Examples of exotic forex options would include Asian options (average price options or "APO’s"), barrier options (payout depends on whether or not the underlying reaches a certain price level or not), baskets (payout depends on more than one currency or a "basket" of currencies), binary options (the payout is cash-or-nothing if underlying does not reach strike price), lookback options (payout is based on maximum or minimum price reached during life of the contract), compound options (options on options with multiple strikes and exercise dates), spread options, chooser options, packages and so on. Exotic options can be tailored to a specific trader’s needs, therefore, exotic options contract types change and evolve over time to suit those ever-changing needs.

Since exotic forex options contracts are usually specifically tailored to an individual investor, most of the exotic options business in transacted over the telephone through forex option brokers. There are, however, a handful of forex option brokers who offer "if touched" forex options or "single payment" forex options contracts online whereby an investor can specify an amount he or she is willing to risk in exchange for a specified payout amount if the underlying price reaches a certain strike price (price level). These transactions offered by legitimate online forex brokers can be considered a type of "exotic" option. However, we have noticed that the premiums charged for these types of contracts can be higher than plain vanilla option contracts with similar strike prices and you can not sell out of the option position once you have purchased this type of option - you can only attempt to offset the position with a separate risk management strategy. As a trade-off for getting to choose the dollar amount you want to risk and the payout you wish to receive, you pay a premium and sacrifice liquidity. We would encourage investors to compare premiums before investing in these kinds of options and also make sure the brokerage firm is reputable.

Again, it is fairly easy and liquid to enter into an exotic forex option contract but it is important to note that depending on the type of exotic option contract, there may be little to no liquidity at all if you wanted to exit the position.

Firms Offering Forex Option "Betting" - A number of new firms have popped up over the last year offering forex "betting." Though some may be legitimate, a number of these firms are either off-shore entities or located in some other remote location. We generally do not consider these to be forex brokerage firms. Many do not appear to be regulated by any government agency and we strongly suggest investors perform due diligence before investing with any forex betting firms. Invest at your own risk with these firms.

John Nobile - Senior Account Executive

List of Co-Operative Banks in India

1. In States

1.1 Andhra Pradesh
1.2 Arunachal Pradesh
1.3 Assam
1.4 Bihar
1.5 Chhattisgarh
1.6 Goa
1.7 Gujarat
1.8 Haryana
1.9 Himachal Pradesh
1.10 Jammu and Kashmir
1.11 Jharkhand
1.12 Karnataka
1.13 Kerala
1.14 Madhya Pradesh
1.15 Maharashtra
1.16 Rajasthan
1.17 Sikkim
1.18 Tamil Nadu
1.19 Tripura
1.20 Uttarakhand
1.21 Uttar Pradesh
1.22 West Bengal

2. In Union Territories

2.1 Andaman and Nicobar Islands
2.2 Chandigarh
2.3 Dadra and Nagar Haveli
2.4 Daman and Diu
2.5 Lakshadweep
2.6 Pondicherry
2.7 National Capital Territory of Delhi

In States

Andhra Pradesh

Eluri co-operative bank.
Andhra Pradesh Mahesh Co-Op Urban Bank Ltd.
Charminar Coop.Urban Bank Ltd.
Vasavi Coop Urban Bank Limited.
Mulkanoor co-operative Rural Bank and Marketing Society Ltd.,

Arunachal Pradesh

The Arunachal Pradesh State co-operative Apex Bank Ltd.

Assam

The Assam Co-operative Apex Bank Ltd.

Bihar

The Bihar State Co-Operative Bank Ltd. The Motihari Central Cooperative Bank Limited

Chhattisgarh

The Chhattisgarh RajyaSahakari Bank Maryadit

Goa

The Bicholim Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd.
The Goa state co-operative bank ltd.
The Margao Urban co-operative bank ltd
Candolin Urban Co-operative Credit Society
Citizen Co-op Bank
Goa Urban Co-operative Bank
Goan Peoples Urban Co-op Bank
Saraswat Co-op Bank
Shamrao Vithal Co-op Bank
Womens Co-operative Bank

Gujarat

Valsad District Central Co-operative Banks Ltd
Textile Traders Co-operative Bank Ltd
Navnirman Co-operative Bank Ltd
Mahesana Nagrik Co-operative Bank Ltd
Nagrik Bank LTD. (Rajkot)
MERCANTILE CO-OPERATIVE BANK LTD
Ahmedabad District Cooperative Bank Ltd.
Junagadh Commercial Co-operative Bank Ltd.
Amreli Dist Co-Operative Bank Ltd.
Surat national co-operative bank Lt

Haryana

The Haryana State Co-operative Apex Bank Ltd.

Himachal Pradesh

Kangra Co-operative Bank Ltd.
Jogindra Co-operative Bank

Jammu and Kashmir

The Jammu and Kashmir State Co-operative Bank Ltd.

Jharkhand

Karnataka

Sirsi Urban Bank
Suco Bank
The Karnataka State Co-operative Apex Bank Ltd
Guardian Souharda Sahakari Bank Niyamitha

Kerala

Kerala State Co-Op Bank
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Trivandrum (Thiruvanandapuram)
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Quilon (Kollam)
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Pathanamthitta
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Alleppey (Alapuzha)
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Kottayam
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Idukki
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Ernakulam
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Trichur
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Palghat (palakkade)
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Malappuram
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Calicut (Kozhikode)
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Wayanad
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Cannannore (Kannur)
Dist. Co-Op Bank,Kasargode
Pala Urban Co-Op Bank
PERIYE SERVICE CO-OP BANK, KASARAGOD DIST.
Cherpulasseri Service Co-op Bank
Cheruthazham Service Co-Op Bank
Ottapalam Co-op Bank, Ottapalam
Valapuzha Service Co-op Bank
The Co-operative Service Bank Limited, Parakode.
People's Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd, Thrippunithura
Madappally Service Co-operative Bank Ltd. Kottayam District. Estd. 1920.
Kottakkal Co-operative Urban Bank Ltd, Kottakkal, Malappuram Dist
Kanakkary Service Co-op Bank
Pallippurathusserry Service Co-op Bank

Madhya Pradesh

The Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sahakari Bank The Mananthavady Farmers Service Co.operative bank ltd. Mananthavady; Wayanad

Maharashtra

The Nasik District Central Co-op Bank Ltd., Nasik.
The Bassein Catholic Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Papdy, Vasai.
Abhyudaya Co-op. Bank Ltd.
Bharat Co-op. Bank Ltd.
The Deccan Merchants Co-operative Bank Ltd., Mumbai
Kodoli Urban Co-op. Bank Ltd. Kodoli.(erstwhile Nagari Sahkari Bank Kodoli)
Shri Balbhim Coop Bank Ltd., Kolhapur
The Maharashtra State Co-op Bank Ltd
Shree Warana Sahakari Bank Ltd. Warananagar
Solapur Siddheshwar Sahakari Bank, Solapur
Solapur janta Sahakari Bank, Solapur
Saraswat Co-Op Bank
Ichalkaranji Janata Sahakari Bank Ltd
Vasantdada Shetkari Sahakari Bank Ltd.,Sangli
Shamrao Vitthal Cooperative Bank
Samarth Sahakari Bank, Solapur
Punjab and Maharashtra cooperative bank ltd
Panchaganga Sahakari Bank, Kolhapur
Dwarkadas Mantri Nagari Sahakari Bank Ltd.,Beed
Deogiri Nagari Sahakari Bank Limited, Aurangabad
Ajintha Urban Co-operative Bank Limited, Aurangabad
Lokvikas Nagari Sahakari Bank Limited, Aurangabad
The Akola Urban Co-operative Bank Limited, Akola
Autangabad District Central Co-operative Bank Limited, Aurangabad
Adarsha Mahila Nagari Sahakari Bank Limited, Aurangabad
Abhinav Co-operative Bank
Dombivli Co-operativ Bank
The Cosmos Co-operative Bank Limited, Pune, Maharashtra, India
Nanded district co-operative Bank.Nanded,Maharastra
The Nagar Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd,Ahmednagar
Shahar Sahakari Bank Ltd, Ahmednagar
The Ahmednagar Merchnats Co-operative Bank Ltd,Ahmednagar
The Bhingar Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd,Ahmednagar
The Rajapur Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd.Rajapur (Ratnagiri)
Vikas Sahakari Bank Ltd., Solapur
Vita Merchant Co-Operative Bank Ltd. Vita
Vyapari Sahakari Bank Ltd., Solapur
Mammandir Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Vita
Mahesh Sahakari Bank Ltd., Solapur
The Pandharpur Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Pandharpur
The Pandharpur Merchants Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Pandharpurar
Ahmednagar District Central Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Ahmednagar
Bhingar Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd.,Bhingar,Ahmednagar
Thane Janata Sahakari Bank, Thane
Wai Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd., Wai, Satara
The vita urban co op. bank ltd,vita ,sangki

Rajasthan

The Rajasthan State Co-operative Bank Ltd. integral co op bank jaipur central co-operative bank

Sikkim

The Sikkim State Co-operative Bank Ltd.

Tamil Nadu

The Tamil Nadu State Apex Co-operative Bank Ltd.
The Shamarao Vital Co-operative Bank Ltd.
Chennai Central Co-operative Bank Ltd.
Tripura
The Tripura State Co-operative Bank Ltd. this is good privatise co operative bank but please trust it in your self

Uttarakhand

Pithoragarh Gramin Bank.
Dist. Sahkarita Bank.

Uttar Pradesh

NAVYA ETDS SOFTWARE
AKVS MARKETING PRIVATE LIMITED

West Bengal

The West Bengal State Co-operative Bank Ltd.

Banks Of India In Union Territories

Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Andaman and Nicobar State Co-operative Bank Ltd. Maulana Azad Road, Portblair. (India) It has around 41 branches on these islands, some of which are in Billiground, Baratang, Hut Bay, Nancowry, Ferrer Gunj, Kadamtala and Diglipur.

Chandigarh

Chandigarh Urban Cooperative Bank
Punjab State Cooperative Bank

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

Daman and Diu

Lakshadweep

Pondicherry

Pondicherry State Cooperative Bank
Mahe Service Co-operative Bank, Mahe

National Capital Territory of Delhi

Delhi State Co-operative Bank

Global Bank Regulators Likely to Strengthen Capital Standards Over Time

Global banking regulators are committed to strengthening capital requirements over time.

• The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision put out a press release yesterday providing colour on initiatives banking supervisors might undertake long term in response to the events of the last two years.

• We had highlighted most of these issues in a July 2008 report ("Bank capital ratios high but face pressure"), and do not believe that they have implications for share prices near term.

• The new capital requirements, if implemented, would lead to lower and more stable ROEs for the global banking system versus the pre-crisis model, in our view.

• The impact on Canadian banks is less clear as they already operate under stricter capital constraints than many of their global peers.

G20 rioters to hang banker effigies from lampposts as city staff are told to wear disguises

Thousands of City staff told to stay at home next week
Bankers told not to wear suits and 'dress down'
Additional 2,500 police deployed at cost of £10million

City workers are being urged to stay at home or to dress down during next week's G20 summit to avoid being targeted by anti-capitalist protesters.

Unprecedented measures are being put in place to prepare for thousands of demonstrators targeting the City and Canary Wharf.

About 3,000 anti-capitalist protesters are expected, with groups next Wednesday marching to the Bank of England, holding 'flashcamps' outside the European Climate Exchange in Bishopsgate, and marching on the US Embassy.

Demonstrators have vowed to hang effigies of bankers from lampposts along the protest route.

City workers have been warned not to wear suits, but to
'dress down' in chinos and loafers because they would be obvious targets.

Banks have been warned to take extra security precautions to protect their staff after vandals attacked former RBS chief Sir Fred Goodwin's Edinburgh home.

Security specialists at Kroll, the risk consultancy, said high profile bankers were 'easy targets'. Companies linked to the financial crisis are taking extra security measures for prominent staff.

An extra 2,500 police, including riot units and intelligence officers, are being deployed at a cost of £10million to tackle any violence, while security consultants are giving firms constant updates on threat levels.

The demonstrations, as 20 world leaders meet at the ExCeL Centre in Docklands to discuss how to end the world recession, are expected to be the biggest in London this decade.

Demonstrators will target the ExCeL centre the next day. Banks, insurers, accountancy firms and brokerages have all circulated emails to staff with security instructions.

One warns: 'The front door is to be permanently locked during these two days.'

Face of the financial crisis: Sir Fred

The London Chamber of Commerce have warned businesses to take security precautions, including making sure staff carry ID, keep movement in and out of the offices to a minimum and cancelling all but essential meetings.

Colin Stanbridge, chief executive of the LCCI, said: 'There will be concern among businesses at the protests but the vast majority of firms will have robust security arrangements in place.'

The financial advisory group Bluefin, which employs 500 staff in London-has told employees not to go to its office in Mark Lane in the City unless absolutely necessary.

A spokesman for the bank UBS said: 'We are telling people to be cautious. If you have client meetings do you need to have them here?"

Chris Knight, professor of anthropology at the University of East London, is organising protests under the banner G20 Meltdown.

He said: 'We are going to be hanging a lot of people like Fred the Shred from lampposts and I can only say let's hope they are just effigies. If he winds us up any more I'm afraid there will be real bankers hanging from lampposts.'

Meanwhile, the group claiming responsibility for vandalising the former Royal Bank of Scotland chairman's home has threatened further action against 'criminal' bank bosses.

A statement claiming to be from the group responsible for damage at his £3million mansion warned of further attacks, saying: 'This is just the beginning.'

The threat sparked fears of a terror campaign against those blamed for the collapse in the financial system.

Security adviser Dai Davies, a former head of Scotland Yard's Royalty Protection squad, said: 'Risk assessments will have to be carried out by the police on individuals who are concerned about their safety. If there is cause for concern then appropriate advice will be given and pre put in place.

'The developments at Sir Fred Goodwin's home will almost certainly make some other high-profile bankers want to review their own private security arrangements.'

In the maze of monetary policy

Simple rules to live by the Central Bank, destroyed. Ahead of us is waiting vague, politicized time

In a world that existed before the financial crisis, the Central Bank felt victorious. They coped with inflation and the sharp edges to smooth business cycles. They managed to organize a powerful brainstorm and develop a common way to achieve their goals, which was recently very accurately described member of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England, David Blanchflauer as one tool - one goal. " The tool was a short-term interest rate, but a goal - price stability. Such minimalism meet the spirit of the times, calling for more freedom for business and less interference from the state. Continuing the growing ranks of financial markets to take into consideration in pricing risk and allocate credit efficiently. To adjust the market need, the central banks had only to turn the interest rate instrument. Yes, bankers are still interested in financial stability and high employment, but they successfully convince all around that this can be achieved through price stability, without political interference. The financial crisis, all turned upside down. It was assumed that the business cycle developed without shocks, but this has not stopped the world rolled into the deepest recession in the 1930's. Now the main threat to all life is considered to be no inflation and deflation, while interest rates in many countries, dangerously close to zero. In these circumstances, central banks do not leave, as set out in search of other improvised means to rectify the situation. In general, once a stable relationship of financial markets fell, so the Central Bank was forced to once again make decisions that were previously left to the private sector. When banks stopped trusting each other, they are from the lender of last resort have become the lenders of first instance. Now they are increasingly determining how lenders make money. Now that the reputation of the market much podmochena, the Central Bank will actively expand its supervisory powers. All this carries them into the political quagmire from which they have for years attempted to escape. Many of them are still hoping that once the crisis is over, they again take up his position apolitical technocrats, pulled the lever for single and looking for a single variable. Not in vain there? "When a question is an axiom of rationality and market efficiency, which was built all of the work over the past 15-20 years, you need to find another approach to monetary policy and regulation", - said Thomas Mayer, senior economist at Deutsche Bank.

Let's start with the most pressing issue: what tools to use the Central Bank to stimulate the economy in the near future? Before the crisis, most of them acted with the help of a short-term interest rate (usually overnight). In itself, this rate has on economic activity is much less influential than, say, the rate on 12-month corporate loan or a 30-year mortgages. However, the relationship between these rates and the official was strong enough to allow the Central Bank to influence the overall financial conditions and, accordingly, the whole economy. Such relationship is threatened gap even before the crisis, as the gap between savings rates across countries has reduced the dependence of long-term rates on short-term. In times of crisis, when lenders were afraid for the opportunity to return back my money, there dezyntegratsiya. Central banks have responded increase its lending operations, adding the types of loans and received support, as well as extending the period of time. Fed start lending to investment banks. The European Central Bank has guaranteed unlimited amounts for a period of six months instead of weeks. Some have gone further. For example, the Bank of Japan began to buy shares, and the Swiss National Bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market.

Even assuming that the worst is behind us, the crisis has not yet ended and most countries are still experiencing a recession. None Central now will not give up their emergency measures. On the contrary, some thinking about how to expand its arsenal. The Bank of Canada and the ECB's plan to direct purchase of government or corporate bonds to improve the quality of loans. According to officials, the banks will curtail their programs only after the crisis. The Fed, for example, the law should stop certain actions, when they would not be an acute need. The bank charges a penalty interest on some of its programs, so the borrower would return to the private market as soon as able. "Exit strategy should allow us to return to a more balanced and sustainable market economy", - said Donald Kohn, the Fed zam.predsedatelya. Mervyn King, chairman of the Bank of England, meanwhile said that the exit strategy will be dictated by the inflation rate, the banks should not support non-viable markets.

New goals

It is possible that the exit would be more difficult than it seems. The study, published by the IMF last year, there was a question of "How to look" normal "situation." "Already, no one expects that the market will return to its pre-crisis state. It is clear that prior to the August 2007 market spreads that take into account the credit risk and liquidity risk were too narrow, and now they are much wider than they should be. But with this and it is not clear where is the golden mean. " Once at the beginning of this decade, the Bank of Japan became the main supplier of credit overnight, interbank market simply atrophy. Now it is many times smaller than before. European banks are now heavily dependent on the U.S. Federal Reserve (offered in the swap arrangements with the local Central Bank) and of the ECB, which provides loans in the euro for 6 months.

If the recovery will be sluggish, the Central Bank will not hasten the abandonment of support for key markets, especially if it will oppose the business and politics. In 1942, the Fed agreed to curb the long-term interest rates to help the Ministry of Finance find the money for military purposes, and only in 1951, these measures were discontinued. When the time come to sell holdings of mortgage bonds, the Central Bank may face opposition from politicians and lobby the housing market. Central Bank have to rethink not only their instruments, but also a goal. Banks and government have agreed that the need to focus on achieving low and stable inflation. By law, the Fed should pay equal attention to the level of employment and prices, but, in reality, it also focuses primarily on inflation. Unanimity of all members of the Central Bank of fabricated research departments and universities. Moreover, the adoption of this perspective has helped scientists to take a seat at the helm of the Central Bank: for example, lead not only to Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Fed, but also the King, and Lucas Papademosa deputy. ECB chairman, and Lars Svensona deputy. Chairman of the Bank of Sweden.

Macroeconomics as a whole came in a strong dependence on the axiom of the effectiveness of markets and their ability to absorb bursts of emotions, which lead to panic and manic states. "Being involved in decision-making on monetary policy, I discovered that modern macroeconomic research is not applicable to solve the problems that we encountered," - noted Blanchflauer in his speech on March 24. For the same reason, today questioned the focus on low and stable inflation. The current recession has started on a background of stability - just as the American Depression and the Japanese "lost decade." "Not enough to follow only the inflation", - said Blanchflauer. "This approach has not been able to prevent the formation of imbalances that provoke a crisis, and it is not enough to cope with problems arising from the financial markets. We talk a lot about the need to develop new tools for regulation of the financial sector that could help prevent such crises." Bernanke and his predecessor Alan Greenspan before the crisis have argued that bubbles in asset markets is difficult to identify until they burst. A sdut them without consequences for the economy even more difficult. Central banks should intervene only if the bubbles threaten price stability. Otherwise, they should sit and wait until they burst, and then rake rubble. This position is only strengthened after the burst bubble in the market dotkomov in the late 1990's.

However, recent events show the contrary. William White, a former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, said that the orientation of the Central Bank to price stability over the medium term and led to the formation of bubbles. Their shlopyvanie facing deflation in the long run. This year, in many countries, inflation will be negative only due to reduction in fuel prices. But even in 2010, inflation is likely to remain below 2% - the target of many securities. In fact, many banks are not much worried, saying that inflation is "under control". However, market participants and economists fear that they will not be able to quickly raise the ante and turn its programs to encourage, when the crisis ends. And it will release inflation at will. Yet steadily falling prices would limit the ability of banks to stimulate growth, because they will not be able to delete the interest rates below inflation, that is, to make them negative in real terms.

Eric Rozengrin, chairman of the Fed in Boston, recently noted that over the past ten years, double the Fed lowered rates to zero or nearly zero. In economic modeling does not take into account this frequency, indicating a need to revise inflation targets. Also proposed to reorient the Central Bank with inflation in the price corridor. For example, each year this corridor is growing at 2%. Then, after a year of deflation at the level of 1%, the central bank will seek to inflation above 2% in subsequent years (say, 5% in two years), to return prices to earlier levels. Greg Manco, an economist from Harvard, went further, proposing to reduce the priority of inflation. "There are things worse and deflation," - he said. "And now we are faced with them."

Rather than inflation targets, the Central Bank will lose the confidence that they are the hard-won, therefore, it is doubtful that they will be happy to go to such a step. Now unlikely anyone dare to ignore the formation of bubbles, and blow them in the early stages, too, has not yet been able, because no one knows how to do it. At this stage, many are inclined to what is easier to use and the smooth management of risks in the financial system. This is called a caution at the macroeconomic level. Last year, Ben Bernanke explained, than it will be different from the normal supervision of individual banks. He noted that the risk was acceptable for a company ceases to be such when it duplicated a lot of companies. Similarly, the usual supervisory authority may require individual banks to reduce lending during the recession, while the care at the macro level refers to the fact that such actions could harm the entire system.

The principle of precaution at the macro level indicates a change in another trend that existed until 2007 - when the Central Bank refused to completely control the functions and focus solely on monetary policy. Scientists believed that the control distracts from the Central Bank to ensure price stability and has a conflict of interest: Central Bank can stimulate inflation to smooth out sharp edges in the banking system, or to support insolvent banks to protect the economy. The central banks of Austria and Britain abandoned the part of regulatory functions. The ECB was set up without them. However, fantasies of diligence at the macro level, most likely not materialize. In the identification and neutralization of bubbles, it is also helpless, like a traditional monetary policy. Moreover, while there is no any correlation between the regulatory responsibilities of the central bank and its ability to avert a crisis. U.S. Federal Reserve - the most powerful and advanced and the financial management, but problems began right under his nose. Neither the Central Bank of Australia nor the Central Bank of Canada does not have the oversight responsibility, however, the financial systems of both countries have suffered less than others. This statistic relates to the behavior of investors and the local zakonodatetlstvom, and not with those for whom follow.

The new fighters in the political arena

By Khudu whether, or for good, but after the crisis, central banks will be stronger than the monitor market processes. This would entail another change: now they can see themselves as completely apolitical. The official status of independence to protect them from political influence. In addition, the principle of "one tool, one goal of" managing the monetary policy turned into a purely technical manipulation. The distinction between central banks and policy today is no longer seen as clearly. Innovative measures often require central banks to make loans that they can not fully repay. This means that taxpayers will suffer losses. This means that without the authorization of the Ministry of Finance can not do. The distribution of credit funds and stricter regulation makes some winners and some losers, therefore, requires clarification and transparency.

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