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Rabu, 05 Agustus 2009

Choosing Between Credit and Debit Cards

Knowing the principle differences between credit and debit cards can help you make wiser financial decisions, thus saving you money. Unfortunately, too many consumers seem to mix up these two types of payment tools, especially when it comes to using credit cards and meeting payment obligations on them. Both, credit and debit cards have their advantages and drawbacks.

If you want to avoid common pitfalls and stay away from financial troubles that strip most vulnerable Americans of their homes and happiness, it is time to get some education.
Trying to understand what you really need, a credit or a debit card, you should look into your priorities, spending habits and special needs. The basic and crucial difference between the two lies in the”working mechanism”. For example, when you pay with a debit card, it is the same as if you were paying with your own hard cash. Except that the cash is in the form of a small plastic and is actually kept in a special checking account with your bank.


How do you get the money in your checking account? There are several ways you can do it. You can make direct cash deposits, arrange transfers from other bank accounts or have your employer transfer your paycheck to the account. You can load the account any time and each time you need more funds available. Remember, using a debit card, you spend your own money without owing anything like interest to your bank. There are some fees though associated with debit card servicing but they are not significant.


A credit card works as a loan. You don’t own the money on the card – you borrow it from a bank. Hence, there come all these APRs (the price for using a credit line), fees and other charges that cover card service, as well as your borrowing risk. As it is kind of a loan, you do not have to pay the purchase price back immediately. Usually, you have up to 30 days before your first minimum payment is due.

At this point cardholders begin to abuse the basic credit card rule – the rule to pay each monthly bill before the due date with more than the minimum required.


The different “working mechanisms” of credit and debit cards determine their pricing and risk. Those who do not make timely payments on credit cards are likely to dig a hole of debt that’s impossible to get out of. And people do make late payments and even miss them.

When default APRs and penalty fees apply to already great balances, your financial wellbeing becomes dependent on external factors such as consumer debt counseling services and various debt management programs.


With all this, the advantages of credit cards are evident. You can easily purchase an item or a service which you were not able to afford before. Plus, you can benefit from various kinds of rewards which accumulate with each card purchase and build up into a value redeemable for brand name merchandize and free services.


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State Farm Bank Visa Business Card

Features
Earn up to 2%** in
State Farm Dollars®
No Annual Fee
Free additional cards for employees
Cash advance privileges via ATMs and convenience checks
Worldwide Visa credit card acceptance
Access to online
reporting tools
Detailed Year-End Summary Statement
Security
Zero Fraud Liability Protection
Identity Theft Protection
Lost/Stolen Card Protection
Visa Liability Waiver Program
Purchase Security/Extended Protection
Travel & Emergency
Travel and Emergency Assistance Services
Free Auto Rental Insurance
24 Hour Good Neighbor Service®

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Student Visa Credit Card

Features
New card
designs available

No annual fee

A competitive rate
Cash advance privileges via ATM
24 Hour Good Neighbor Service®
Online access anytime
Zero Fraud Liability Protection
Lost/Stolen card protection
Worldwide Visa credit card acceptance


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Good Neighbor Visa Credit Card

Features
Low Purchase APR*
No Annual Fee
Zero Fraud Liability Protection
Online Discounts
Lost/Stolen card protection
Worldwide Visa credit card acceptance
24 Hour Good Neighbor Service®
Online Access Anytime
Free built-in protection features
Free Identity Theft Protection
Free Account Fraud Monitoring
Free $250,000 Travel Accident Insurance
Free Auto Rental Insurance
Cash advance privileges via ATMs and convenience checks

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Did I uncover your credit card details on the web today!

Today I accidentally uncovered a huge list of people’s names, addresses and credit card details online. No kidding.

I found more than that: login details to people’s web hosting accounts and e-commerce site memberships as well. It was really freaky to think it was all just staring at me, thanks to a flukey Google search. Nothing more complicated than that. (And no, don’t email me for the search details!)
For whatever reason, a hacker has broken into a number of sites and stored the resulting DB dumps into text files that Google came along and indexed, all because this guy’s site’s directories were set to display their contents when no default file is present.
I have emailed Victoria Police with all the details. But after thinking about it some more, I have a simple observation and a suggestion…
First the observation that if a hacker is dumb enough to have your private login or credit card details online and indexable by Google, then they’re likely to be in a text file and unencrypted. If your credit card is listed, it’s probably had the spaces removed, since that’s how it will be stored (by idiots who don’t use a salted hash).


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W.D. Gann Trading Methods - Genius Trader or Overrated Guru

W.D. Gann is one of the most famous traders of all time, and has a huge devoted following - however the fact is, Gann never made the huge profits many of his disciples claim.

He did not have a success rate of 90%, as is often claimed - the logic his methods are based upon are unsound, and his predictive methods don’t predict - they leave everything to subjective opinion!

Let’s examine his theories of investment in more detail and see.

Let’s look at some common myths about how great a trader Gann actually was:

Many sources quote Gann’s trading profits at $50 million dollars, however this is not true.

An interview that Alexander Elder had with his son tells the truth.

Firstly, his son confirmed that when his father died in the 1950s his estate was valued at just $100,000 - and that included his house.

Secondly, his son confirmed that Gann was unable to make enough money from trading, and therefore supplemented his income by writing and selling courses.

W.D. Gann’s Predictions

Many sources quote he had a success rate in all his trades of over 90% - again not true. We can easily deduce this from the value of his estate.

If he could make money trading and had a 90% success rate, he would have made hundreds of millions in his trading career - and he clearly did not - that’s why he had to sell books and courses.

The only evidence of a 90% success rate came from a small number of trades - and was not representative of them all.

Gann’s Methods are Predictive

Gann came to the conclusion that all natural phenomena are cyclical - including financial markets. This is true, but this is an obvious statement - we all know we’re going to die but when exactly?

A predictive theory is not a predictive theory if it can’t predict.

If Gann’s theory really is predictive, then there would be no market - as we would all know the price in advance!

Gann’s theory is subjective - and he really had no way of predicting the future with accuracy. It’s all subjective analysis and this is NOT a predictive theory.

Gann’s Logic

The basis of Gann’s theory is the principle that price and time must balance.

His methods are based on the squaring of price with time - this occurs when a unit of price equals a unit of time.

Gann for example would take a prominent high in the market, convert that dollar unit into a specified period of time and project it forward. When that time is reached, price and time are squared - and a market turn is due.

What? - How can one unit of price equal one unit of time? If you think about and answer this question for yourself, you will see how absurd the connection is.

This isn’t the only inconsistency used in his analysis - we also have the legendary Fibonacci numbers which are supposed to work with stunning accuracy - but they don’t, and neither do all sorts of astrology and geometry, that appeals to the far out investment crowd.

As we have seen, Gann was a trader who had modest success, and claimed to have discovered a predictive theory - which predicts nothing with accuracy.

Finally, we have so many subjective indicators cobbled together, that the theory can prove anything in hindsight, but if you want a tool to trade the markets look elsewhere.

For those of you still not convinced - I recently saw on the Internet, Gann’s trading methods selling for under $1,000!

Sounds like a bargain to get trades with 90% accuracy - I wonder how many serious money managers have it on their bookshelf.

Enough said.

New! A valuable FREE Currency Trader CD containing 9 critical trading reports, tips, strategies and trading systems info. Visit our web site now and grab your CD http://www.tradercurrencies.com.

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What is Credit Card?

A credit card is part of a system of payments named after the small plastic card issued to users of the system. It is a card entitling its holder to buy goods and services based on the holders promise to pay for these goods and services.[1] The issuer of the card grants a line of credit to the consumer (or the user) from which the user can borrow money for payment to a merchant or as a cash advance to the user. A credit card is different from a charge card, where a charge card requires the balance to be paid in full each month. In contrast, credit cards allow the consumers to 'revolve' their balance, at the cost of having interest charged. Most credit cards are issued by local banks or credit unions, and are the same shape and size as specified by the ISO 7810 standard.

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Nationalized banks in India


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Private Sector Indian Banks


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What are Your Options Regarding Forex Options Brokers?

Forex option brokers can generally be divided into two separate categories: forex brokers who offer online forex option trading platforms and forex brokers who only broker forex option trading via telephone trades placed through a dealing/brokerage desk. A few forex option brokers offer both online forex option trading as well a dealing/brokerage desk for investors who prefer to place orders through a live forex option broker.

The trading account minimums required by different forex option brokers vary from a few thousand dollars to over fifty thousand dollars. Also, forex option brokers may require investors to trade forex options contracts having minimum notional values (contract sizes) up to $500,000. Last, but not least, certain types of forex option contracts can be entered into and exited at any time while other types of forex option contracts lock you in until expiration or settlement. Depending on the type of forex option contract you enter into, you might get stuck the wrong way with an option contract that you can not trade out of. Before trading, investors should inquire with their forex option brokers about initial trading account minimums, required contract size minimums and contract liquidity.

There are a number of different forex option trading products offered to investors by forex option brokers. We believe it is extremely important for investors to understand the distinctly different risk characteristics of each of the forex option trading products mentioned below that are offered by firms that broker forex options.

Plain Vanilla Forex Options Broker - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, in the case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic option contracts that are traded through an over-the-counter (OTC) forex dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of a standard forex call option contract or forex put option contract.

There are only a few forex option broker/dealers who offer plain vanilla forex options online with real-time streaming quotes 24 hours a day. Most forex option brokers and banks only broker forex options via telephone. Vanilla forex options for major currencies have good liquidity and you can easily enter the market long or short, or exit the market any time day or night.

Vanilla forex option contracts can be used in combination with each other and/or with spot forex contracts to form a basic strategy such as writing a covered call, or much more complex forex trading strategies such as butterflies, strangles, ratio spreads, synthetics, etc. Also, plain vanilla options are often the basis of forex option trading strategies known as exotic options.

Exotic Forex Options Broker - First, it is important to note that there a couple of different forex definitions for "exotic" and we don’t want anyone getting confused. The first definition of a forex "exotic" refers to any individual currency that is less broadly traded than the major currencies. The second forex definition for "exotic" is the one we refer to on this website - a forex option contract (trading strategy) that is a derivative of a standard vanilla forex option contract.

To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla." Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a change in one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific’s investor’s needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.

Exotic forex options are generally traded by commercial and institutional investors rather than retail forex traders, so we won’t spend too much time covering exotic forex options brokers. Examples of exotic forex options would include Asian options (average price options or "APO’s"), barrier options (payout depends on whether or not the underlying reaches a certain price level or not), baskets (payout depends on more than one currency or a "basket" of currencies), binary options (the payout is cash-or-nothing if underlying does not reach strike price), lookback options (payout is based on maximum or minimum price reached during life of the contract), compound options (options on options with multiple strikes and exercise dates), spread options, chooser options, packages and so on. Exotic options can be tailored to a specific trader’s needs, therefore, exotic options contract types change and evolve over time to suit those ever-changing needs.

Since exotic forex options contracts are usually specifically tailored to an individual investor, most of the exotic options business in transacted over the telephone through forex option brokers. There are, however, a handful of forex option brokers who offer "if touched" forex options or "single payment" forex options contracts online whereby an investor can specify an amount he or she is willing to risk in exchange for a specified payout amount if the underlying price reaches a certain strike price (price level). These transactions offered by legitimate online forex brokers can be considered a type of "exotic" option. However, we have noticed that the premiums charged for these types of contracts can be higher than plain vanilla option contracts with similar strike prices and you can not sell out of the option position once you have purchased this type of option - you can only attempt to offset the position with a separate risk management strategy. As a trade-off for getting to choose the dollar amount you want to risk and the payout you wish to receive, you pay a premium and sacrifice liquidity. We would encourage investors to compare premiums before investing in these kinds of options and also make sure the brokerage firm is reputable.

Again, it is fairly easy and liquid to enter into an exotic forex option contract but it is important to note that depending on the type of exotic option contract, there may be little to no liquidity at all if you wanted to exit the position.

Firms Offering Forex Option "Betting" - A number of new firms have popped up over the last year offering forex "betting." Though some may be legitimate, a number of these firms are either off-shore entities or located in some other remote location. We generally do not consider these to be forex brokerage firms. Many do not appear to be regulated by any government agency and we strongly suggest investors perform due diligence before investing with any forex betting firms. Invest at your own risk with these firms.

John Nobile - Senior Account Executive

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List of Co-Operative Banks in India

1. In States

1.1 Andhra Pradesh
1.2 Arunachal Pradesh
1.3 Assam
1.4 Bihar
1.5 Chhattisgarh
1.6 Goa
1.7 Gujarat
1.8 Haryana
1.9 Himachal Pradesh
1.10 Jammu and Kashmir
1.11 Jharkhand
1.12 Karnataka
1.13 Kerala
1.14 Madhya Pradesh
1.15 Maharashtra
1.16 Rajasthan
1.17 Sikkim
1.18 Tamil Nadu
1.19 Tripura
1.20 Uttarakhand
1.21 Uttar Pradesh
1.22 West Bengal

2. In Union Territories

2.1 Andaman and Nicobar Islands
2.2 Chandigarh
2.3 Dadra and Nagar Haveli
2.4 Daman and Diu
2.5 Lakshadweep
2.6 Pondicherry
2.7 National Capital Territory of Delhi

In States

Andhra Pradesh

  • Eluri co-operative bank.
  • Andhra Pradesh Mahesh Co-Op Urban Bank Ltd.
  • Charminar Coop.Urban Bank Ltd.
  • Vasavi Coop Urban Bank Limited.
  • Mulkanoor co-operative Rural Bank and Marketing Society Ltd.,

Arunachal Pradesh
  • The Arunachal Pradesh State co-operative Apex Bank Ltd.

Assam
  • The Assam Co-operative Apex Bank Ltd.

Bihar

  • The Bihar State Co-Operative Bank Ltd. The Motihari Central Cooperative Bank Limited

Chhattisgarh
  • The Chhattisgarh RajyaSahakari Bank Maryadit

Goa

  • The Bicholim Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd.
  • The Goa state co-operative bank ltd.
  • The Margao Urban co-operative bank ltd
  • Candolin Urban Co-operative Credit Society
  • Citizen Co-op Bank
  • Goa Urban Co-operative Bank
  • Goan Peoples Urban Co-op Bank
  • Saraswat Co-op Bank
  • Shamrao Vithal Co-op Bank
  • Womens Co-operative Bank

Gujarat
  • Valsad District Central Co-operative Banks Ltd
  • Textile Traders Co-operative Bank Ltd
  • Navnirman Co-operative Bank Ltd
  • Mahesana Nagrik Co-operative Bank Ltd
  • Nagrik Bank LTD. (Rajkot)
  • MERCANTILE CO-OPERATIVE BANK LTD
  • Ahmedabad District Cooperative Bank Ltd.
  • Junagadh Commercial Co-operative Bank Ltd.
  • Amreli Dist Co-Operative Bank Ltd.
  • Surat national co-operative bank Lt

Haryana
  • The Haryana State Co-operative Apex Bank Ltd.

Himachal Pradesh

  • Kangra Co-operative Bank Ltd.
  • Jogindra Co-operative Bank

Jammu and Kashmir
  • The Jammu and Kashmir State Co-operative Bank Ltd.

Jharkhand


Karnataka
  • Sirsi Urban Bank
  • Suco Bank
  • The Karnataka State Co-operative Apex Bank Ltd
  • Guardian Souharda Sahakari Bank Niyamitha

Kerala

  • Kerala State Co-Op Bank
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Trivandrum (Thiruvanandapuram)
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Quilon (Kollam)
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Pathanamthitta
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Alleppey (Alapuzha)
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Kottayam
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Idukki
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Ernakulam
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Trichur
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Palghat (palakkade)
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Malappuram
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Calicut (Kozhikode)
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Wayanad
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Cannannore (Kannur)
  • Dist. Co-Op Bank,Kasargode
  • Pala Urban Co-Op Bank
  • PERIYE SERVICE CO-OP BANK, KASARAGOD DIST.
  • Cherpulasseri Service Co-op Bank
  • Cheruthazham Service Co-Op Bank
  • Ottapalam Co-op Bank, Ottapalam
  • Valapuzha Service Co-op Bank
  • The Co-operative Service Bank Limited, Parakode.
  • People's Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd, Thrippunithura
  • Madappally Service Co-operative Bank Ltd. Kottayam District. Estd. 1920.
  • Kottakkal Co-operative Urban Bank Ltd, Kottakkal, Malappuram Dist
  • Kanakkary Service Co-op Bank
  • Pallippurathusserry Service Co-op Bank

Madhya Pradesh
  • The Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sahakari Bank The Mananthavady Farmers Service Co.operative bank ltd. Mananthavady; Wayanad

Maharashtra

  • The Nasik District Central Co-op Bank Ltd., Nasik.
  • The Bassein Catholic Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Papdy, Vasai.
  • Abhyudaya Co-op. Bank Ltd.
  • Bharat Co-op. Bank Ltd.
  • The Deccan Merchants Co-operative Bank Ltd., Mumbai
  • Kodoli Urban Co-op. Bank Ltd. Kodoli.(erstwhile Nagari Sahkari Bank Kodoli)
  • Shri Balbhim Coop Bank Ltd., Kolhapur
  • The Maharashtra State Co-op Bank Ltd
  • Shree Warana Sahakari Bank Ltd. Warananagar
  • Solapur Siddheshwar Sahakari Bank, Solapur
  • Solapur janta Sahakari Bank, Solapur
  • Saraswat Co-Op Bank
  • Ichalkaranji Janata Sahakari Bank Ltd
  • Vasantdada Shetkari Sahakari Bank Ltd.,Sangli
  • Shamrao Vitthal Cooperative Bank
  • Samarth Sahakari Bank, Solapur
  • Punjab and Maharashtra cooperative bank ltd
  • Panchaganga Sahakari Bank, Kolhapur
  • Dwarkadas Mantri Nagari Sahakari Bank Ltd.,Beed
  • Deogiri Nagari Sahakari Bank Limited, Aurangabad
  • Ajintha Urban Co-operative Bank Limited, Aurangabad
  • Lokvikas Nagari Sahakari Bank Limited, Aurangabad
  • The Akola Urban Co-operative Bank Limited, Akola
  • Autangabad District Central Co-operative Bank Limited, Aurangabad
  • Adarsha Mahila Nagari Sahakari Bank Limited, Aurangabad
  • Abhinav Co-operative Bank
  • Dombivli Co-operativ Bank
  • The Cosmos Co-operative Bank Limited, Pune, Maharashtra, India
  • Nanded district co-operative Bank.Nanded,Maharastra
  • The Nagar Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd,Ahmednagar
  • Shahar Sahakari Bank Ltd, Ahmednagar
  • The Ahmednagar Merchnats Co-operative Bank Ltd,Ahmednagar
  • The Bhingar Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd,Ahmednagar
  • The Rajapur Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd.Rajapur (Ratnagiri)
  • Vikas Sahakari Bank Ltd., Solapur
  • Vita Merchant Co-Operative Bank Ltd. Vita
  • Vyapari Sahakari Bank Ltd., Solapur
  • Mammandir Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Vita
  • Mahesh Sahakari Bank Ltd., Solapur
  • The Pandharpur Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Pandharpur
  • The Pandharpur Merchants Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Pandharpurar
  • Ahmednagar District Central Co-Operative Bank Ltd., Ahmednagar
  • Bhingar Urban Co-Operative Bank Ltd.,Bhingar,Ahmednagar
  • Thane Janata Sahakari Bank, Thane
  • Wai Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd., Wai, Satara
  • The vita urban co op. bank ltd,vita ,sangki

Rajasthan
  • The Rajasthan State Co-operative Bank Ltd. integral co op bank jaipur central co-operative bank

Sikkim

  • The Sikkim State Co-operative Bank Ltd.

Tamil Nadu
  • The Tamil Nadu State Apex Co-operative Bank Ltd.
  • The Shamarao Vital Co-operative Bank Ltd.
  • Chennai Central Co-operative Bank Ltd.
  • Tripura
  • The Tripura State Co-operative Bank Ltd. this is good privatise co operative bank but please trust it in your self

Uttarakhand

  • Pithoragarh Gramin Bank.
  • Dist. Sahkarita Bank.

Uttar Pradesh

  • NAVYA ETDS SOFTWARE
  • AKVS MARKETING PRIVATE LIMITED

West Bengal
  • The West Bengal State Co-operative Bank Ltd.

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Banks Of India In Union Territories

Andaman and Nicobar Islands

  • Andaman and Nicobar State Co-operative Bank Ltd. Maulana Azad Road, Portblair. (India) It has around 41 branches on these islands, some of which are in Billiground, Baratang, Hut Bay, Nancowry, Ferrer Gunj, Kadamtala and Diglipur.

Chandigarh
  • Chandigarh Urban Cooperative Bank
  • Punjab State Cooperative Bank

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

Daman and Diu


Lakshadweep

Pondicherry

  • Pondicherry State Cooperative Bank
  • Mahe Service Co-operative Bank, Mahe

National Capital Territory of Delhi
  • Delhi State Co-operative Bank

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Global Bank Regulators Likely to Strengthen Capital Standards Over Time

Global banking regulators are committed to strengthening capital requirements over time.

• The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision put out a press release yesterday providing colour on initiatives banking supervisors might undertake long term in response to the events of the last two years.

• We had highlighted most of these issues in a July 2008 report ("Bank capital ratios high but face pressure"), and do not believe that they have implications for share prices near term.

• The new capital requirements, if implemented, would lead to lower and more stable ROEs for the global banking system versus the pre-crisis model, in our view.

• The impact on Canadian banks is less clear as they already operate under stricter capital constraints than many of their global peers.

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G20 rioters to hang banker effigies from lampposts as city staff are told to wear disguises

Thousands of City staff told to stay at home next week
Bankers told not to wear suits and 'dress down'
Additional 2,500 police deployed at cost of £10million

City workers are being urged to stay at home or to dress down during next week's G20 summit to avoid being targeted by anti-capitalist protesters.

Unprecedented measures are being put in place to prepare for thousands of demonstrators targeting the City and Canary Wharf.

About 3,000 anti-capitalist protesters are expected, with groups next Wednesday marching to the Bank of England, holding 'flashcamps' outside the European Climate Exchange in Bishopsgate, and marching on the US Embassy.

Demonstrators have vowed to hang effigies of bankers from lampposts along the protest route.


City workers have been warned not to wear suits, but to
'dress down' in chinos and loafers because they would be obvious targets.

Banks have been warned to take extra security precautions to protect their staff after vandals attacked former RBS chief Sir Fred Goodwin's Edinburgh home.

Security specialists at Kroll, the risk consultancy, said high profile bankers were 'easy targets'. Companies linked to the financial crisis are taking extra security measures for prominent staff.

An extra 2,500 police, including riot units and intelligence officers, are being deployed at a cost of £10million to tackle any violence, while security consultants are giving firms constant updates on threat levels.

The demonstrations, as 20 world leaders meet at the ExCeL Centre in Docklands to discuss how to end the world recession, are expected to be the biggest in London this decade.

Demonstrators will target the ExCeL centre the next day. Banks, insurers, accountancy firms and brokerages have all circulated emails to staff with security instructions.

One warns: 'The front door is to be permanently locked during these two days.'

Face of the financial crisis: Sir Fred

The London Chamber of Commerce have warned businesses to take security precautions, including making sure staff carry ID, keep movement in and out of the offices to a minimum and cancelling all but essential meetings.

Colin Stanbridge, chief executive of the LCCI, said: 'There will be concern among businesses at the protests but the vast majority of firms will have robust security arrangements in place.'

The financial advisory group Bluefin, which employs 500 staff in London-has told employees not to go to its office in Mark Lane in the City unless absolutely necessary.

A spokesman for the bank UBS said: 'We are telling people to be cautious. If you have client meetings do you need to have them here?"

Chris Knight, professor of anthropology at the University of East London, is organising protests under the banner G20 Meltdown.

He said: 'We are going to be hanging a lot of people like Fred the Shred from lampposts and I can only say let's hope they are just effigies. If he winds us up any more I'm afraid there will be real bankers hanging from lampposts.'

Meanwhile, the group claiming responsibility for vandalising the former Royal Bank of Scotland chairman's home has threatened further action against 'criminal' bank bosses.

A statement claiming to be from the group responsible for damage at his £3million mansion warned of further attacks, saying: 'This is just the beginning.'

The threat sparked fears of a terror campaign against those blamed for the collapse in the financial system.

Security adviser Dai Davies, a former head of Scotland Yard's Royalty Protection squad, said: 'Risk assessments will have to be carried out by the police on individuals who are concerned about their safety. If there is cause for concern then appropriate advice will be given and pre put in place.

'The developments at Sir Fred Goodwin's home will almost certainly make some other high-profile bankers want to review their own private security arrangements.'

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Analysts have a lot to learn from meteorologists

Analysts were predicting a mistake by shooting down somebody Ministry of Finance.

Of the economists came to worthless. Meteorologists, at least, those who at least cares a little weather in the UK do not trust the method of extrapolation. They just know that even if the sun shines today, tomorrow may still be rainy and windy. Certainly some of what analysts have learned to meteorologists, in particular, they adjust the data, taking into account seasonal factors: but sometimes does seem that they make their forecasts almost blindly. How many economists correctly predicted a turning point in economic activity? I suspect that a bit. They also believe that the economy is capable of self-regulation. Of course, the economic processes, sometimes out of control, but most usually a long time back in a stable condition. In fact, all mathematical models used by analysts to predict the dynamics of the national economy is based on the judgment. A year ago, when Britain's economy has teetered on the brink of a credit crisis, the Ministry of Finance analysts still believe that 2009 will be better than 2008, in which they predicted economic growth of 2% (real growth rate of only 0.7%). Analysts Ministry has acknowledged that 2008 was not a normal year for the country, but they said "... the stability of the UK economy demonstrates the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies and the benefits of flexible and open labor markets and capital, goods and services. Therefore, projected after 2008 to a normalization of the situation in the financial market and adapt to new market conditions, you will begin to rise in GDP. " According to British analysts' forecasts, economic growth in 2009 amount to 2.25-2.75%. Meanwhile, independent analysts are more cautious in their forecasts, expecting growth to only 1.9%. Now, nine months later, it became clear that economic growth in Britain will fall by 3-4%. In general, the entire community of analysts badly mistaken, but the MoF has bypassed all, promising a significant improvement in 2009. At the other end of London, on Trednidl Street analysts have done their work a little better. The Bank of England, unlike the Ministry of Finance does not publish a detailed economic forecasts, but still matches the data in reference to quarterly inflation. In February 2008, analysts predicted the Bank of England in the second half of 2008 economic growth will fall sharply (to 1.5%), but, then, in 2009, restored in him peculiar V-shaped manner. It should be noted that the forecast allows for the possibility of a recession, but few analysts believed the Bank of England that recession at this stage is a real threat.

Three months later, the Bank of England has revised the short-term prognosis for the worse: now acknowledged the existence of a threat of a recession, but it is still not part of the "main scenario" the Bank. Moreover, CB is still seen the chances of economic recovery in 2009. The Bank of England was able to recognize that a recession is still a "core script" of events in August last year, but by that time the UK has seen a crisis. This is more like an attempt to get a finger into the sky, rather than on accurate forecasts. Another forecast of Ministry of Finance was published last week, when the Minister announced his budget. Yes, he acknowledged that the situation is deteriorating, however, with the expressed hope for a noticeable improvement in the future. What, in general, quite obviously, because even after the Great Depression, a period of recovery. Ideally, analysts should work much better, but, alas ... Very few were smart or lucky enough to make the correct forecast for the past year and a half. What is taught their mistakes?

The first mistake - this is arrogance. This is a very reliable last year's budget shows. The Ministry of Finance is inclined to believe the view, first expressed in a report on the budget for 2006 that the British economy can grow steadily to 2.75% per year. The longer the recession will last, the less plausible is that assessment of capacity growth. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance piously believed that the economy has become much more flexible and that "the result is macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation to combat the current crisis. These findings appear to be totally wrong: the main problem of instability and financial system, rather than the flexibility of the economy, labor, goods and services. The second error - it is shortsighted and lack of planning. Perhaps, analysts and are not able to accurately predict the onset of a recession, but this does not mean that it did not occur. Instead, it is a sign of great instability, and forecasts to the contrary - no more than wishful thinking. The main rule of money: "a little good", thus it is important to use large cash surplus in the favorable economic situation. However, until now, only a few countries, the government has managed to come to such results ( basically, it was the Government who are interested in winning the next election). So, when the economy suddenly gives a crash, the financial situation, often can not count on strong support.

Third mistake - this is wishful thinking. When the economy is "stray from the path, of course, want to believe that the Government simply click your fingers, and all problems will be solved. It would not. The economic crisis is usually a snow dump on the head (otherwise, the prediction would be a matter of very light). This, in turn, means that the policy in a hurry to seek appropriate ways to begin to address the problem. A year and a half ago, for example, only one offered to make the quantitative easing. Recession in the UK are rare, but tend to be protracted, despite the praises flexible economy. Since the mid 70's and until now, a recession (defined by long periods of lower quarterly values of GDP), continued from five to nine quarters. Subsequent recovery (the time that took a return to the previous peak of activity) lasted from five to ten quarters. Even when activity is restored, begins a long time working on the final normalization of the situation. The fourth problem - the indifference of the rest of the world. Governments and heads of central banks like to pretend that they are all under control. Of course, something they can change, but, ultimately, the UK economy is dependent on changes in the global economy. Meteorologists know that the events that took place in another part of the world can affect the weather conditions in the UK. Analysts, however, to think, perhaps, that the island of Great Britain, not only geographically but also economically. Let's hope that the experience of the past year and a half, finally to make and believe the opposite.

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Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank Al Reqqa Street, Dubai 04 2958888
04 2959310

www.adcb.com
Citibank (Main Branch) Khalid Bin Al Waleed Street, Bur Dubai, Dubai 04 5074110
04 3528654

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Commercial Bank of Dubai Deira, Port Saeed, P.O. Box 2668, Dubai 04 2121000
04 2121111

www.cbd.co.ae
Commercial Bank International (Main Branch) Al Reqqa Street, Deira, Dubai 04 2275265
04 2279038

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Emirates Bank (Main Branch) Beniyas Road, P.O. Box 2923, Dubai 04 3160316
04 2264302

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First Gulf Bank Al Yamamah Tower, P.O. Box. 52053, Deira, Dubai 04 2941234
04 2949595

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HSBC HSBC Bank Building Baniyas Square, Deira, Dubai 04 2227161
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Lloyds Bank Al Wasl Road, Jumeirah, Dubai 04 422000
04 3422660

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Mashreq Bank (Main Branch) Omar Ibn Al Khatab Road, Next to Al Ghurair Center, Deira, Dubai 04 2223333
04 2226061

www.mashreqbank.com
National Bank of Abu Dhabi Bank Street, near Burjuman Centre, Dubai 04 3599111
04 3517388

www.nbad.com
National Bank of Dubai Baniyas Road, Deira, Dubai 04 2222111
04 283000

www.nbd.com
Royal Bank of Canada API World Tower, Office 1002, 10th Floor, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai 04 3313196
04 3313960

www.rbcprivatebanking.com/dubai
Standard Chartered Bank Al Mankhool Road, P.O. Box 999, Dubai 04 3520455
04 3527523

www.standardchartered.com/ae

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