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Rabu, 05 Agustus 2009

Thoughts on Managing Money

We often hear from students by letter, telephone, and in person at seminars, that they greatly desire to trade managed money.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, we also hear from students who want money managed for them. In either case, the experience can be gut wrenching.

This chapter should serve as a warning and a caution to both. Since your author has at one time or another engaged in managing money for others, I base what I have to say here on my own experiences and, if it please the reader, this may be entitled "Confessions of a Trader."

The psychological basis for successful trading is indeed a delicate subject. No one we have ever heard of has been able to pinpoint exactly what it is that gives one trader success while another trader fails. Although some claim to have done this, coming up with an attribute profile of the "average" winner, no one we know of has identified a set of common denominators among professional winning traders. Besides, which of us is "average?" Is it you?

Winning in the markets seems to involve a fine balance of traits that differ among winning traders. To make the identification of winning traders even more complicated, there seems to be a distinction between those traders who can successfully trade their own money and those traders who can successfully trade the money of others. I have met both.

Two of the most successful money managers I know personally began by trading managed money. They began trading other people’s money for lack of sufficient money of their own with which to trade. Later in their careers, when they did have sufficient money with which to trade their own account, they found that they failed miserably. They were not able to trade their own money with any degree of success. More than that, when they traded their own money simultaneously with trading managed money, they failed at both.

Upon further investigation, and after speaking with a number of traders who have tried both, I discovered that there are many traders who are successful at trading managed money, but who can’t trade their way out of their hat when trying to trade their own money. Invariably, upon further probing, some admitted that they were much more daring and courageous with other people’s money than they were when the money was their own.

Also in this group of those who trade better for others than themselves, I have been able to identify traders who said they were much more careful and conservative with the money of others than they were with money of their own.

So within this group of traders, all of them students of ours who can successfully trade managed money, some are successful because they are more daring with other people’s money, and some are successful because they are more careful with money not their own.

Next, we come to those traders who successfully manage their own money and who have attempted to manage money for others, but failed.

I have heard from quite a few traders who attempted to manage money for others. In this group I include those who have failed miserably. I have spoken with a number of students who have had the experience of losing at least half of the money under their management prior to returning the balance to those who invested with them. Amazingly, the answers are the same as with the group who successfully manage money. Managed money seems to be a "monkey" on their backs. They find that they trade too carefully, too conservatively when the money is not their own. Worse than that, when things go wrong with a trade, they do not act rationally and with the same cool determination as with their own money. When they trade their own account, they do not think of it as money. When they trade someone else’s account, all they can think of is that it is money. And, because it is not their own, they try their hardest not to lose it. Unfortunately, experience shows that what they fear the most happens - they do lose the money.

I have spoken with students who successfully manage their own money because they are more careful with their own than with the money of others. They, too, have failed with managed money, and have resigned themselves to trading only their own accounts.

Among the students and acquaintances, I have identified at least four categories of traders who attempt to manage money. I’m sure there are other categories, but these are the ones I’ve found:

1. Those who successfully manage money for others but cannot manage their own account with any great degree of success because they are too careful with their own money, while they are more daring with the money of others.

2. Those who successfully manage money for others but cannot manage their own account with any great degree of success because they are too daring with their own money, while they are more careful with the money of others.

3. Those who successfully manage their own money but fail with managed money because they are too careful when managing money for others.

4. Those who successfully manage their own money but fail with managed money because they are too daring when managing money for others.

Conclusions:

Among these students I found none who successfully traded both managed accounts and their own accounts. The size of the population for this study was too small to come up with any meaningful statistics, but there are some warnings and cautions that can be concluded.

To those of you who want to have your money managed, be aware that the individual success of any trader trading his/her own money is no guarantee that that person can successfully manage the money of others. It would seem to bear out the reality of placing managed money with a proven successful trader of managed money.

To those of you who want to manage money for others, be aware that successfully trading your own account is no guarantee that you will be able to successfully trade the account of other persons.

Failure in either of these situations is painful for all concerned! In fact, the pain can be so great as to prematurely end the trading hopes of either party.

Be very careful, because in both of these situations the result can be great personal pain. The pain may be both physical and mental, and can cause you to abort your trading career. I feel it is my duty to caution you about getting involved with managed money, whether you try to manage the money of others, or whether you want someone else to manage yours. The costs can be horrendous.

The responsibility of trading managed money can really wear you down. You may have to go for years without a vacation. You find yourself working late into the night, and working a significant portion of the weekends.

All work and no play is not a good thing for your trading career.

Interestingly, most of my students come to me relating that the reason they want to learn how to trade is so they can become independent and not have to work at a regular job. However, trading managed money is one of the most grueling jobs you can ever undertake.

by Joe Ross
http://www.tradingeducators.com

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Trading with Strategy

Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. ACM does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.

Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very ’fast market’ which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders’ timing will be off. Don’t expect to generate returns on every trade.

Let’s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:

Trade with money you can afford to lose:

Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are ’involved with your money’ the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.

Identify the state of the market:

What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that’s forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.

Determine what time frame you’re trading on:

Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind’s eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you’ll be ’scalping’ (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you’re looking at. If you trade many times a day, there’s no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you’ll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.

Time your trade:

You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that’s already underway. Timing your move means knowing what’s expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.

If in doubt, stay out:

If you’re unsure about a trade and find you’re hesitating, stay on the sidelines.

Trade logical transaction sizes:

Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity (in ACM’s case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don’t trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don’t put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.

Gauge market sentiment:

Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term ’the trend is your friend’, this basically means that if you’re in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.

Market expectation:

Market expectation relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been ’discounted’ by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.

Use what other traders use:

In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.

by Nicholas H. Bang
http://www.ac-markets.com

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