Simple rules to live by the Central Bank, destroyed. Ahead of us is waiting vague, politicized time
In a world that existed before the financial crisis, the Central Bank felt victorious. They coped with inflation and the sharp edges to smooth business cycles. They managed to organize a powerful brainstorm and develop a common way to achieve their goals, which was recently very accurately described member of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England, David Blanchflauer as one tool - one goal. " The tool was a short-term interest rate, but a goal - price stability. Such minimalism meet the spirit of the times, calling for more freedom for business and less interference from the state. Continuing the growing ranks of financial markets to take into consideration in pricing risk and allocate credit efficiently. To adjust the market need, the central banks had only to turn the interest rate instrument. Yes, bankers are still interested in financial stability and high employment, but they successfully convince all around that this can be achieved through price stability, without political interference. The financial crisis, all turned upside down. It was assumed that the business cycle developed without shocks, but this has not stopped the world rolled into the deepest recession in the 1930's. Now the main threat to all life is considered to be no inflation and deflation, while interest rates in many countries, dangerously close to zero. In these circumstances, central banks do not leave, as set out in search of other improvised means to rectify the situation. In general, once a stable relationship of financial markets fell, so the Central Bank was forced to once again make decisions that were previously left to the private sector. When banks stopped trusting each other, they are from the lender of last resort have become the lenders of first instance. Now they are increasingly determining how lenders make money. Now that the reputation of the market much podmochena, the Central Bank will actively expand its supervisory powers. All this carries them into the political quagmire from which they have for years attempted to escape. Many of them are still hoping that once the crisis is over, they again take up his position apolitical technocrats, pulled the lever for single and looking for a single variable. Not in vain there? "When a question is an axiom of rationality and market efficiency, which was built all of the work over the past 15-20 years, you need to find another approach to monetary policy and regulation", - said Thomas Mayer, senior economist at Deutsche Bank.
Let's start with the most pressing issue: what tools to use the Central Bank to stimulate the economy in the near future? Before the crisis, most of them acted with the help of a short-term interest rate (usually overnight). In itself, this rate has on economic activity is much less influential than, say, the rate on 12-month corporate loan or a 30-year mortgages. However, the relationship between these rates and the official was strong enough to allow the Central Bank to influence the overall financial conditions and, accordingly, the whole economy. Such relationship is threatened gap even before the crisis, as the gap between savings rates across countries has reduced the dependence of long-term rates on short-term. In times of crisis, when lenders were afraid for the opportunity to return back my money, there dezyntegratsiya. Central banks have responded increase its lending operations, adding the types of loans and received support, as well as extending the period of time. Fed start lending to investment banks. The European Central Bank has guaranteed unlimited amounts for a period of six months instead of weeks. Some have gone further. For example, the Bank of Japan began to buy shares, and the Swiss National Bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market.
Even assuming that the worst is behind us, the crisis has not yet ended and most countries are still experiencing a recession. None Central now will not give up their emergency measures. On the contrary, some thinking about how to expand its arsenal. The Bank of Canada and the ECB's plan to direct purchase of government or corporate bonds to improve the quality of loans. According to officials, the banks will curtail their programs only after the crisis. The Fed, for example, the law should stop certain actions, when they would not be an acute need. The bank charges a penalty interest on some of its programs, so the borrower would return to the private market as soon as able. "Exit strategy should allow us to return to a more balanced and sustainable market economy", - said Donald Kohn, the Fed zam.predsedatelya. Mervyn King, chairman of the Bank of England, meanwhile said that the exit strategy will be dictated by the inflation rate, the banks should not support non-viable markets.
New goals
It is possible that the exit would be more difficult than it seems. The study, published by the IMF last year, there was a question of "How to look" normal "situation." "Already, no one expects that the market will return to its pre-crisis state. It is clear that prior to the August 2007 market spreads that take into account the credit risk and liquidity risk were too narrow, and now they are much wider than they should be. But with this and it is not clear where is the golden mean. " Once at the beginning of this decade, the Bank of Japan became the main supplier of credit overnight, interbank market simply atrophy. Now it is many times smaller than before. European banks are now heavily dependent on the U.S. Federal Reserve (offered in the swap arrangements with the local Central Bank) and of the ECB, which provides loans in the euro for 6 months.
If the recovery will be sluggish, the Central Bank will not hasten the abandonment of support for key markets, especially if it will oppose the business and politics. In 1942, the Fed agreed to curb the long-term interest rates to help the Ministry of Finance find the money for military purposes, and only in 1951, these measures were discontinued. When the time come to sell holdings of mortgage bonds, the Central Bank may face opposition from politicians and lobby the housing market. Central Bank have to rethink not only their instruments, but also a goal. Banks and government have agreed that the need to focus on achieving low and stable inflation. By law, the Fed should pay equal attention to the level of employment and prices, but, in reality, it also focuses primarily on inflation. Unanimity of all members of the Central Bank of fabricated research departments and universities. Moreover, the adoption of this perspective has helped scientists to take a seat at the helm of the Central Bank: for example, lead not only to Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Fed, but also the King, and Lucas Papademosa deputy. ECB chairman, and Lars Svensona deputy. Chairman of the Bank of Sweden.
Macroeconomics as a whole came in a strong dependence on the axiom of the effectiveness of markets and their ability to absorb bursts of emotions, which lead to panic and manic states. "Being involved in decision-making on monetary policy, I discovered that modern macroeconomic research is not applicable to solve the problems that we encountered," - noted Blanchflauer in his speech on March 24. For the same reason, today questioned the focus on low and stable inflation. The current recession has started on a background of stability - just as the American Depression and the Japanese "lost decade." "Not enough to follow only the inflation", - said Blanchflauer. "This approach has not been able to prevent the formation of imbalances that provoke a crisis, and it is not enough to cope with problems arising from the financial markets. We talk a lot about the need to develop new tools for regulation of the financial sector that could help prevent such crises." Bernanke and his predecessor Alan Greenspan before the crisis have argued that bubbles in asset markets is difficult to identify until they burst. A sdut them without consequences for the economy even more difficult. Central banks should intervene only if the bubbles threaten price stability. Otherwise, they should sit and wait until they burst, and then rake rubble. This position is only strengthened after the burst bubble in the market dotkomov in the late 1990's.
However, recent events show the contrary. William White, a former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, said that the orientation of the Central Bank to price stability over the medium term and led to the formation of bubbles. Their shlopyvanie facing deflation in the long run. This year, in many countries, inflation will be negative only due to reduction in fuel prices. But even in 2010, inflation is likely to remain below 2% - the target of many securities. In fact, many banks are not much worried, saying that inflation is "under control". However, market participants and economists fear that they will not be able to quickly raise the ante and turn its programs to encourage, when the crisis ends. And it will release inflation at will. Yet steadily falling prices would limit the ability of banks to stimulate growth, because they will not be able to delete the interest rates below inflation, that is, to make them negative in real terms.
Eric Rozengrin, chairman of the Fed in Boston, recently noted that over the past ten years, double the Fed lowered rates to zero or nearly zero. In economic modeling does not take into account this frequency, indicating a need to revise inflation targets. Also proposed to reorient the Central Bank with inflation in the price corridor. For example, each year this corridor is growing at 2%. Then, after a year of deflation at the level of 1%, the central bank will seek to inflation above 2% in subsequent years (say, 5% in two years), to return prices to earlier levels. Greg Manco, an economist from Harvard, went further, proposing to reduce the priority of inflation. "There are things worse and deflation," - he said. "And now we are faced with them."
Rather than inflation targets, the Central Bank will lose the confidence that they are the hard-won, therefore, it is doubtful that they will be happy to go to such a step. Now unlikely anyone dare to ignore the formation of bubbles, and blow them in the early stages, too, has not yet been able, because no one knows how to do it. At this stage, many are inclined to what is easier to use and the smooth management of risks in the financial system. This is called a caution at the macroeconomic level. Last year, Ben Bernanke explained, than it will be different from the normal supervision of individual banks. He noted that the risk was acceptable for a company ceases to be such when it duplicated a lot of companies. Similarly, the usual supervisory authority may require individual banks to reduce lending during the recession, while the care at the macro level refers to the fact that such actions could harm the entire system.
The principle of precaution at the macro level indicates a change in another trend that existed until 2007 - when the Central Bank refused to completely control the functions and focus solely on monetary policy. Scientists believed that the control distracts from the Central Bank to ensure price stability and has a conflict of interest: Central Bank can stimulate inflation to smooth out sharp edges in the banking system, or to support insolvent banks to protect the economy. The central banks of Austria and Britain abandoned the part of regulatory functions. The ECB was set up without them. However, fantasies of diligence at the macro level, most likely not materialize. In the identification and neutralization of bubbles, it is also helpless, like a traditional monetary policy. Moreover, while there is no any correlation between the regulatory responsibilities of the central bank and its ability to avert a crisis. U.S. Federal Reserve - the most powerful and advanced and the financial management, but problems began right under his nose. Neither the Central Bank of Australia nor the Central Bank of Canada does not have the oversight responsibility, however, the financial systems of both countries have suffered less than others. This statistic relates to the behavior of investors and the local zakonodatetlstvom, and not with those for whom follow.
The new fighters in the political arena
By Khudu whether, or for good, but after the crisis, central banks will be stronger than the monitor market processes. This would entail another change: now they can see themselves as completely apolitical. The official status of independence to protect them from political influence. In addition, the principle of "one tool, one goal of" managing the monetary policy turned into a purely technical manipulation. The distinction between central banks and policy today is no longer seen as clearly. Innovative measures often require central banks to make loans that they can not fully repay. This means that taxpayers will suffer losses. This means that without the authorization of the Ministry of Finance can not do. The distribution of credit funds and stricter regulation makes some winners and some losers, therefore, requires clarification and transparency.
